Glass Market Rapidly Improves, Subsequent Cold Repair Furnace Plans Are Being Halted [SMM Analysis]

Published: Feb 14, 2025 11:35

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[SMM Analysis: Rapid Improvement in Glass Market, Planned Cold Repair of Kilns Halted] As of February, the new glass prices are as follows: 2.0mm single-layer coating (11.5-12.5 yuan/m²); 2.0mm double-layer coating (12.5-13.5 yuan/m²); 3.2mm single-layer coating (19.5-20.5 yuan/m²); 3.2mm double-layer coating (20.5-21.5 yuan/m²); 2.0mm back glass (9.5-10.5 yuan/m²). Currently in February, the domestic glass price center remains unchanged from January, with the mainstream quotation center for 2.0mm at 12 yuan/m² and back glass prices stable at 10 yuan/m². With the rapid recovery of demand, the supply shortage of glass in H1 is expected to become evident, strengthening the upward price trend. Some planned cold repair kilns have recently canceled their plans, with subsequent production expected to increase.

SMM February 14 News: As of February, the new glass prices are as follows: 2.0mm single-layer coating (11.5-12.5 yuan/m²); 2.0mm double-layer coating (12.5-13.5 yuan/m²); 3.2mm single-layer coating (19.5-20.5 yuan/m²); 3.2mm double-layer coating (20.5-21.5 yuan/m²); 2.0mm back glass (9.5-10.5 yuan/m²). Currently in February, domestic glass price centers remain unchanged compared to January, with the mainstream price center for 2.0mm at 12 yuan/m² and back glass prices stable at 10 yuan/m². With the rapid recovery on the demand side, the undersupply of glass in H1 is evident, strengthening the upward price trend. Some planned cold repairs for kilns have recently been canceled, with subsequent production expected to increase.

Figure PV Glass Price Trends
Data Source: SMM

Specifically, regarding February prices, as of now, glass companies' quotations remain consistent with November prices. The mainstream price center for 2.0mm remains at 12 yuan/m², stable compared to January. Although prices are stable, February's domestic market trading volume has surged, with over 80% of module companies stockpiling glass to varying degrees. According to incomplete statistics from SMM, February's glass market trading volume is expected to exceed module production schedules by nearly 15GW, with procurement volumes significantly increasing. Therefore, although glass inventories rose during the Chinese New Year holiday, inventories are expected to decline rapidly after this round of concentrated stockpiling ends. Amidst the active trading atmosphere, some glass companies have also suspended taking new orders for this month, with the market showing signs of undersupply.

On the supply side, there are no planned cold repairs for kilns in February domestically, and some previously sealed kiln production lines are scheduled to restart soon. In March, two kilns are planned to start production domestically. Glass supply in Q1 is expected to increase, with monthly supply estimated to approach 45GW, though the balance will still show a tight state. As a result, some subsequent cold repair plans for glass have been completely canceled, with supply expectations strengthened.

In summary, regarding the price forecast for the remainder of February, SMM believes that new order prices may increase, while this month's execution prices will temporarily remain stable. Based on the current supply and demand situation, as well as glass companies' inventory and order-taking conditions, new order prices are expected to rise by 1 yuan/m².

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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